Bitcoin could fall well below $50,000 if the network does not become resistant to quantum computing by 2028, according to Capriole founder Charles Edwards.
Edwards said advances in quantum computing pose a credible long-term risk to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security.
Quantum computers could theoretically break encryption, exposing private keys and placing user funds at risk.
While many in the industry believe the threat remains decades away, Edwards warned the timeline may be much shorter.
In a post on X, Edwards said the market may underestimate how quickly quantum capabilities could develop.
“Starting to think we will just need a huge bear market to wash out the idiots who think the Quantum threat to Bitcoin is a joke,” Charles Edwards said.
Edwards argued that a severe market downturn may be needed to force action on upgrading the Bitcoin network.
“If we haven’t deployed a fix by 2028, I expect Bitcoin will be sub $50K and continue to fall until it’s fixed,” Edwards said.
He added that a quantum-resistant upgrade should ideally be implemented by 2026 to avoid prolonged uncertainty.
Edwards said Bitcoin could be among the first major financial systems targeted once quantum attacks become viable.
He argued that banks and traditional institutions are already migrating toward post-quantum encryption standards.
Edwards said banks can reverse or block fraudulent transactions, while Bitcoin transactions are irreversible.
“We have to fix this next year, or bon voyage enjoy the biggest Bitcoin bear market in history,” Charles Edwards said.
Edwards compared the potential fallout to previous market collapses, suggesting it could exceed the impact of FTX.
Some critics continue to argue that quantum computing is not yet advanced enough to pose an immediate threat.
Others claim mainstream financial institutions would be compromised before Bitcoin.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo suggested that holding funds in SegWit wallets could reduce exposure in the short term.
Woo said SegWit addresses may offer improved protection while longer-term solutions are developed.
Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor has previously dismissed quantum concerns as exaggerated.
Saylor said fears around quantum computing are often used to promote speculative quantum-related tokens.
Despite differing views, Edwards said the debate itself highlights the need for proactive planning.
He said uncertainty around quantum risks could weigh heavily on investor confidence.
Market participants continue to monitor technological developments and potential protocol upgrades closely.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $86,869.78.