Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) long-discussed four-year market cycle remains intact but is now shaped by political events and liquidity conditions rather than the asset’s halving mechanism, according to new analysis from 10x Research.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said the belief that the cycle has broken down misunderstands how Bitcoin's market dynamics have evolved in recent years.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen explained that US elections, central bank policy and capital flows now play a larger role in determining Bitcoin's peaks and troughs.
He noted that historical market highs in 2013, 2017 and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, aligning more closely with political cycles than with halving dates.
Thielen argued that Bitcoin halvings have shifted across the calendar over time, weakening their reliability as a timing tool for major market moves.
“There's this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats, and therefore maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” Markus Thielen said.
The analyst added that expectations around US election outcomes often influence risk appetite across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
His comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain strong upward momentum despite recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
Thielen said rate cuts no longer provide the same boost to Bitcoin as in previous cycles due to tighter liquidity and cautious institutional positioning.
Institutional investors, now a dominant force in crypto markets, are reportedly more sensitive to policy uncertainty and mixed signals from central banks.
Data shows capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, reducing the buying pressure needed to fuel a sustained rally.
Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase unless liquidity conditions improve meaningfully.
He advised investors to focus less on the halving narrative and more on political and macroeconomic catalysts when assessing market timing.
In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has argued that the four-year crypto cycle is effectively dead.
Hayes said historical timing models based on four-year patterns no longer reflect how modern crypto markets behave.
According to Hayes, global liquidity trends, rather than fixed cycles or halvings, have always been the true driver of Bitcoin bull and bear markets.
He added that previous bull markets ended when dollar and yuan liquidity tightened, not because a four-year cycle had naturally concluded.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $89,210.98.